Meta Ads During 11.11, 12.12 and Black Friday: What to Do When Costs Rise

Every sale season, the same thing happens. Ads that ran fine for weeks suddenly cost more, the cost per purchase jumps, and the first instinct is to pause everything and start fresh.

Don’t. Not yet. Around 11.11, 12.12 and Black Friday, a higher cost is usually the market, not your ad. Here’s how to tell the difference, and what to change instead of hitting pause.

Why Meta ads cost more around 11.11, 12.12 and Black Friday

Meta ads run on an auction. When more advertisers want the same people, the price goes up, just like any free market.

Sale seasons are when everybody shows up at once: 11.11, 12.12, Black Friday, Christmas, year-end sales and Chinese New Year. Meta can’t simply show people twice as many ads, because people would hate the feed. So it keeps the balance, and the extra demand shows up as a higher price per impression. That price is your CPM, the cost per 1,000 impressions.

Remember, you pay Meta every time your ad is shown. When CPM goes up, everything that sits on top of it goes up too: cost per click, cost per add-to-cart, cost per purchase.

The mistake: pausing an ad that worked for two weeks

Here’s the thing. If an ad has been working for two weeks and costs rise in week three, the past two weeks still happened. That track record still counts.

Pausing at the first sign of trouble is one of the most common mistakes I see. You lose the learning the ad has built up, you restart from zero, and you do it at the most expensive time of the year. If an ad has been performing well for weeks, it doesn’t suddenly turn sour overnight. Something around it changed, and usually that something is the auction.

Check CPM before you blame the ad

Let me show you a real example from a campaign I reviewed. Week on week, cost per result went from about RM80 to RM100 on one ad set, and from RM126 to RM213 on another. That looks scary.

Then you check CPM. It went from RM42 to RM56. When the price of reaching people rises by double digits, every cost on top of it rises too. Nothing was wrong with the ads.

So before you change anything, read these numbers together:

What you see	What it usually means	What to do
CPM up, CTR steady	The market got more expensive	Hold. Give it 2 to 3 days to balance back. Check it against your break-even, not your feelings.
CPM steady, CTR down	The ad is losing its grip	Look at the creative and the offer. This one is on you, not the season.
CPM up, CTR down	Both, often with frequency climbing	Check frequency first. You may be showing the same ad to the same people too often.
CPM and CTR steady, purchases down	The leak is after the click	Check the landing page, the checkout and the offer.

There’s no universal CPM benchmark. Build your own: once your results feel comfortable, note your CPM, then track it week by week. That’s the number you compare against in November, not someone else’s.

If CPM is the part that worries you, I wrote more about it in why your Meta ads CPM is high.

Measure weekly, not daily

We monitor daily, but we measure weekly. One day of data during a sale season tells you almost nothing.

One client’s ROAS swung from 14x to 5x to 15x to 4x, week after week. Looked at monthly, it was a steady 8 to 9x. If they had reacted to every bad week, they would have broken a campaign that was working.

Give every decision at least a week of data, and compare the same days of the week against each other.

What to change for the sale, instead of pausing

Sale season is a reason to plan, not to panic. These are the moves I use with my e-commerce clients:

1. Build up add-to-carts before the big day. For a one-day event like 11.11, an ad set optimised for add-to-cart in the week before can work better than going straight for purchase. A good share of those carts check out on the day itself. I explain when this works in add to cart vs purchase optimisation for sale events.
2. Raise the budget on the big day, then scale it back. On 11.11, 12.12 or Black Friday itself, people are in the buying mood, so that’s when you want the exposure. Push more budget into retargeting, because the people who already viewed or added to cart are the ones most likely to buy when the sale opens. Normally I spend about 80% on new people and 20% on warm audiences, and the big day is when the warm side gets more. Then, and this is the part people forget, scale it back once the sale ends. Set a reminder if you have to.
3. Tell your past customers. Upload your customer list as a custom audience and show them the deal. Past buyers already trust you, so a sale is a good reason for them to come back. Save this audience for promotions, so they don’t see you every day.
4. Promote what is actually on sale. If you run catalog ads, build a product set with the promoted products instead of pushing the whole catalog.
5. Move money into the final days. Don’t spread the budget flat. Shift more of it to your warmest audience as the sale gets close. Here’s how in the two-phase budget shift.
6. If costs climb past what your margin can take, cut the budget to the minimum and keep the ad running. Turning it off throws away the learning. A smaller budget keeps it alive for when prices come back down.

One more thing. A rise caused by the market usually balances back in two to three days. If it doesn’t, that’s when you take action, and even then, reduce first, don’t kill.

Know the number that tells you when to stop

Here’s the honest truth. “My costs went up” only matters if they went above what you can afford.

If your ROAS drops from 3.2 to 2.6 during 11.11, is that a problem? It depends entirely on your break-even ROAS. If you break even at 2.1, you’re still making money, and pausing would cost you sales on the biggest days of the year. If you break even at 2.8, you’re paying Meta to lose money, and you need to act.

Most advertisers don’t know that number. If you can’t say your break-even ROAS in 5 seconds, work it out before the sale starts, not in the middle of it.

Find your break-even ROAS with the free Know Your Numbers Scorecard →

Two minutes, no access to your ad account. You’ll see the ROAS your ads need to make money, the most you can pay for a sale, and how far Meta’s number is from both.

A quick self-check before you pause anything

• Has the ad worked for at least two weeks before costs went up?
• Did CPM rise? If yes, by how much, compared with your own weekly benchmark?
• Did CTR hold steady, or did it drop?
• Is frequency climbing above 2 on your cold audience?
• Are you judging on a full week of data, or on one bad day?
• Is your ROAS still above break-even, even if it’s lower than last month?

If CPM rose, CTR held and you’re still above break-even, the answer is usually to hold your nerve and let the sale run.

Frequently asked questions

Why do Meta ads get more expensive during 11.11 and Black Friday?

Meta ads run on an auction. During sale seasons like 11.11, 12.12, Black Friday and Chinese New Year, many more advertisers compete for the same people, so the cost of showing an ad (CPM) goes up. Every cost built on top of it, from cost per click to cost per purchase, rises with it.

Should I pause my Meta ads when costs go up during a sale?

Usually not. If the ad worked for weeks before costs rose, check CPM and CTR first. If CPM rose but CTR held, it’s the market, not the ad. If costs go beyond what your margin can take, cut the budget to the minimum and keep the ad running instead of turning it off, so you keep its learning.

Should I raise my retargeting budget during a sale?

I usually spend about 80% on new audiences and 20% on warm audiences. On the big day itself, like 11.11 or 12.12, push more budget into retargeting, because people are in the buying mood and those who already viewed or added products to cart are the most likely to buy. Remember to scale it back once the sale ends.

How do I know if a higher cost per purchase during a sale is still OK?

Compare it with your break-even ROAS and the most you can afford to pay for a sale. If your ROAS is lower than usual but still above break-even, you’re still making money. If it falls below break-even, you’re paying Meta to lose money and need to act.

Want another pair of eyes before the sale?

The scorecard tells you your numbers. If you already know you’re below break-even and you want to find out why, the Know Your Numbers Assessment is a 90-minute session with me. We start with your numbers, then go through your Ads Manager, your landing page and your offer together on screen share, and you leave with a written plan of what to fix first.

Written by Jason Gan, a Meta ads strategist who has run Meta ads since 2010 and personally audited more than 1,000 ad accounts. Meta Certified Professional and Badged Meta Business Partner. Watch real account breakdowns on his YouTube channel.